The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reported in recent weeks that the U.S. economy officially entered a recession in February 2020. This transition brought a 128-month expansion to an end, the longest in post World War II history.1
So, what does that mean?
At the highest level, the NBER confirmed what most Americans already knew—the COVID-19 pandemic brought business activity to a near full stop.
One interesting item from the NBER economic update had nothing to do with a recession. Many economists who commented on the NBER report said they believe the U.S. is moving past the recession and entering a new expansion. Some of them point to the May unemployment report, which showed the economy gained a surprising 2.5 million jobs.2,3
Economists were quick to point out that the U.S. has not experienced three consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth since the late 1940s.4
We remain optimistic about the business cycle, and we’re watching for more “green shoots” in various economic reports. If you see some encouraging signs, please give us a call. We welcome the chance to hear about what you are thinking.
- com, June 8, 2020
- The New York Times, June 8, 2020
- com, June 5, 2020
- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2020
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